Are We There Yet?
Posted: Tuesday, February 9th, 2016

At DoubleLine, we find the Fed started explicitly tightening the shadow rate or the “effective” interest rate as early as June 2014. The Wu-Xia shadow rate reached its lowest level of -3.0% in May 2014 during the Fed’s taper, just a few months before the Fed completed their bond buying program. Since then the shadow rate rose steadily back to zero in November last year, just before the Fed made its first interest rate hike.

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