DoubleLine CAPE® in Rising Rate Environments – March 2019
Posted: Tuesday, May 21, 2019

On July 8, 2016, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note traded at an all-time low of 1.36%. With the subsequent move higher in rates since, this date in 2016 appears in retrospect to have heralded the end of the 35-year bull market in bonds that saw 10-year yields fall from 15.84% in September 1981. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond tells the same story. After a 35-year fall from an all-time high of 15.21% in October 1981, the long bond marked an all-time low on July 8, 2016 at 2.10% – a level which it has subsequently left behind. The near-term outlook for interest rates is, as always, uncertain and subject to a multitude of fundamental, technical, cyclical, policy and geopolitical factors. Viewed with a longer-term perspective, however, a number of factors suggest the U.S. could be on the brink of a sustained period of rising rates.

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