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Commercial Real Estate Credit in Post-COVID-19 World – Morris Chen, Sept 2020
Posted: Monday, August 31, 2020

Despite late-cycle concerns after a decade of continuous growth, U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) appeared on track to extend positive performance through 2020. CRE benefited from a strong macroeconomic backdrop with low odds of recession and stable fundamentals while heading into a presidential election year. Then came the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in government-imposed shutdowns that disrupted the asset class’s fundamentals and technical outlook. Within months following the onset of the pandemic in the U.S., the economy entered a recession characterized by the largest levels of unemployment since the Great Depression. The federal government and the Federal Reserve have tried to fight back with fiscal and monetary stimulus to the tune of roughly 16% of U.S. annual GDP … and counting. Notwithstanding the unprecedented scale of this intervention, significant uncertainty surrounding the timing of a recovery for CRE and the broader economy remains.

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