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November 8, 2022

Global Reboot: The Changing Structure of the Global Economy

In their Nov. 8, 2022, international fixed income webcast, portfolio managers Bill Campbell and Mark Christensen discuss structural changes reshaping the global economy for the long term as well as intermediate-term cyclical developments, and the outlook for emerging markets. Mr. Campbell cites three major structural themes that are transforming the global economy: the end of China as an underwriter of global growth (0:51), the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict (10:39) and global inflation (16:14). Mr. Campbell then turns to cyclical factors (25:57) now at work on the global economy, including the draining of liquidity by the world’s central banks as a drag on global growth.

Mr. Christensen begins his review of emerging fixed income markets (30:16) with a focus on inflation and rising Treasury yields, China’s damaged property sector, political risks, the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the global growth slowdown. On economic fundamentals, Mr. Christensen expects growth (34:49) to tick up in 2023 in EM Asia, EM Europe and sub-Saharan African and to decline in Latin America and the Middle East. He foresees higher levels of sovereign debt (36:47) in EM Asia and the Middle East and lower levels of sovereign debt in EM Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa. With respect to EM corporate credit (37:28), he expects net leverage and interest-coverage ratios to weaken slightly, albeit from their strongest levels in many years. He also observes that by those metrics, EM corporate bonds, both high grade and high yield, compare favorably with their U.S. and European peers.

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About the Presenters

About the Presenters

  • William Campbell

    Portfolio Manager
    International Fixed Income - Int. Sovereign

    William Campbell

    Portfolio Manager
    International Fixed Income - Int. Sovereign

    Mr. Campbell joined DoubleLine in 2013. He is a Portfolio Manager for the DoubleLine Global Bond Strategy and is a permanent member of the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee. He covers Developed Markets, Central & Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa (CEEMEA), and China. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Campbell worked for Peridiem Global Investors as a Global Fixed Income Research Analyst and Portfolio Manager. Previous to that, he was with Nuveen Investment Management Company, first as a Quantitative Analyst in their Risk Management and Portfolio Construction Group, then as a Vice President in their Taxable Fixed Income Group. Mr. Campbell also worked at John Hancock Financial as an Investment Analyst. He holds a BS in Business Economics and International Business, as well as a BA in English, from Pennsylvania State University. Mr. Campbell holds an MA in Mathematics, with a focus on Mathematical Finance, from Boston University.

  • Mark Christensen

    International Fixed Income - Emerging Markets

    Mark Christensen

    International Fixed Income - Emerging Markets

    Mr. Christensen joined DoubleLine in 2009 as an Emerging Markets Portfolio Manager and Co-Director of Corporate Research. He is a contributing member on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation committee. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Christensen was a Managing Director at TCW since 1991, where he had been involved in building and managing TCW’s Emerging Markets Fixed Income business, including Trading, Marketing, Credit Research, and Portfolio Management. He holds a BS in Business Management with an emphasis in International Finance from Brigham Young University.