After recapping positive market performance for March and the quarter, DoubleLine’s Jeff Mayberry and Sam Lau turn to the Topic of the Week: how commercial real estate (CRE) lending will be impacted by the recent issues at regional banks (20:36)*. Sam begins by laying out the size of the role that regional banks play in the CRE lending space (22:19) before Jeff & Sam get into DoubleLine’s overall outlook (24:57): the cost of financing will go up for those seeking capital. The two in particular discuss the $2.5 trillion in CRE loans coming due in the next five years and what options such as modifications and strategic default will be available for lenders and borrowers, with Sam and Jeff noting that loans will be handled on a case-by-case basis due to idiosyncratic factors.
The final market week of March (27-31) assisted monthly and quarterly performance for equities (2:18), fixed income (4:53) and Bitcoin (11:24). The broader commodities market (8:40) missed out on the green quarter. Macro Land received a lot of numbers for the week, including home prices (11:57), jobless claims (13:08), a PCE print (14:07), inflation expectations (15:32) and the Fed balance sheet (16:01). Jeff also shares some choice Fed official quotes (17:10). Next week will also be a busy data week (36:42), with Jeff and Sam getting prints for manufacturing and services PMI, JOLTS, jobless claims and nonfarm payrolls. MMM will be recording and releasing this Thursday due to the Good Friday holiday. For more on Jeff & Sam’s thoughts on the regional banking crisis, check out MMM 106: March Madness Shakes Up a Couple Banks.
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Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.
Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.