DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeffery Mayberry and Samuel Lau kick off the episode with a nod to the 15th anniversary of Lehmann Brothers’ bankruptcy filing (Sept. 15, 2008) before running down the market week of Sept. 11-15. For their Topic of the Week* (16:48), Jeff and Sam break down the just-released August CPI print, with a look at headline, core and supercore readings; a discussion of the BEA publishing a supercore PCE price index, its current favorite metric (22:06); and a rundown of various Fed bank CPI prints (24:15): median, trimmed mean, flexible and sticky.
On the market week, the S&P 500 (1:21) was slightly down, with utilities up and tech down. On the fixed income side (2:33), the Agg was down for the week while bank loans continued their strong year. Commodities (4:45) continued their second-half surge, and WTI crude’s sticky $90 handle is spotlighted as well as the factors boosting oil. Over in Macro Land (10:11), topics include retail sales numbers goosed by gas; jobless claims; and the Producer Price Index, which had its lowest year-over-year core print since January 2021. No Fedspeak this week heading into next week’s FOMC meeting, but there were some interesting shifts in rate hike expectations (15:26) for the remainder of the year. Next week will also bring jobless claims, the August LEI numbers and global PMI prints (28:05). This episode was recorded after market close on Sept. 15, 2023.
*For more discussion of the CPI, check out Episode 13 on the owners’ equivalent rent component, Episode 19 on Fed banks’ sticky and flexible readings, Episode 30 on the impact of housing prices, Episode 102 on weighting mechanisms and Episode 104 on supercore inflation.
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Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.
Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.