Heading into a possible shutdown of the government, Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Quantitative Analyst Eric Dhall survey a bad 3Q2023 (16:48) for stock, bond and commodity returns, but a quarter offering possible opportunities in the wake of wide dispersions in asset performance. Jeff and Eric first cover the Sept. 25-29 week’s performance for equities (1:30), fixed income (3:05) and commodities (4:19). After covering the week’s macro news (5:35), including “incredible resilience” reflected in the S&P Case Shiller 20-city house price index, they turn to a review of markets in September, the third quarter and year-to-date. While stocks with the exception of energy (16:48) shared along with bonds and commodities in the quarter’s carnage, Jeff Mayberry notes the “huge dispersion” among sectors, a possible set-up for trading opportunities. They also review fixed income (20:32) and commodities (23:16) for those time periods. Then they look ahead (27:41) to the Oct. 2-6 week which has scheduled, among other macro news drops, ISM manufacturing and, if the government is still running, the JOLTS, non-farm payrolls, unemployment and labor force participation reports. In the absence of government reports on the labor market, Jeff Mayberry notes the ADP Employment Change report, due Wednesday Oct. 4, could be a market mover.
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Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.
Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro Committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.