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October 18, 2022 | Monday Morning Minutes

MMM Episode 87: Prices, Prices, Prices

After their survey of the Oct. 10-14 market week (2:13), Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau take a deep dive (23:50) into the household inflation expectations component of University of Michigan consumer-sentiment survey. The release of the preliminary October survey on Friday showed a rise in expectations of higher prices, rattling stock and bond markets. The report followed Thursday’s (10:05) Consumer Price Index report that showed a 0.6% month-over-month (MoM) rise in core consumer prices in September vs. expectations of a 0.4% increase, pushing the year-over-year (YoY) rise to 6.6%, its hottest number since August 1982.

Jeff and Sam also take a look inside core CPI, noting that while core goods prices decelerated to 6.6% YoY in September from 7.1% YoY in August, core services prices accelerated to 6.7% YoY from 6.1% YoY. A key culprit behind the higher services inflation was a rise in owners’ equivalent rent (13:53), up 0.75% MoM or 6.7% YoY. In terms of market responses to the week’s inflation news, Jeff and Sam take note of higher yields across the Treasury curve, especially a 19-basis point rise for week in the two-year Treasury yield (3:03) to 4½%, a level last seen in August 2007.

About the Hosts

About the Hosts

  • Jeffrey Mayberry

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Jeffrey Mayberry

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.

  • Samuel Lau

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Samuel Lau

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.