DoubleLine Podcasts

MMM Episode 54: Market Reactions to Russia-Ukraine and Reviewing the State of Sanctions

After running down market and macro news in the face of threatening moves by Russia toward Ukraine, Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau look at the sanction responses by the West after Russia’s invasion as their Topic of the Week (17:55). This episode was recorded Feb. 25, 2022. They cover the initial sanctions by various countries and the EU, including restrictions on banking and limiting access to key technology; which parties are already calling for ratcheting up those sanctions or employing additional measures, and what form those moves might take; Russia’s ability to handle current and future sanctions; and the current hesitation to cut off Russia from the SWIFT banking system, which Jeff and Sam see as the worst-case scenario (24:14).

Despite the looming invasion threat, Jeff and Sam note that the flight to quality that might have been expected never materialized in the market week of Feb. 21-25, possibly because markets had already priced in an invasion and the sanctions response was milder than some had anticipated. Equities (2:17), fixed income (3:54) and commodities (6:04) marked a positive week. Next week will deliver manufacturing, ADP and employment data, and an appearance by Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell before the House (31:40).

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