DoubleLine Podcasts

MMM Episode 61: Rising Prices, Inflation Mindsets and Fed Hubris

After covering the market action and macro news for the abbreviated week of April 11-14, host Samuel Lau and guest host Eric Dhall, a trader and quantitative analyst on DoubleLine Capital’s Cross Asset team, survey (20:08) the hottest rise in consumer and producer prices since the early 1980s. While wishing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell success in achieving a “soft landing” that tames inflation while avoiding recession, they criticize (29:52) as hubris claims by Fed officials that they will succeed in achieving “neutral rates” through a rapid series of hikes of the Federal Funds rate. In passing, Eric takes note (25:54) statements by Taiwan Semiconductor that it expects manufacturers to try to build up stockpiles of computer chips to hedge against higher chip prices in the future. This is an example, he says, of how deeply inflation concerns have infiltrated the thinking of business management.

Given the sustained surge in commodity prices, Monday Morning Minutes listeners who want further background on commodity futures can check out Monday Morning Minutes episode 48, recorded Jan. 14, 2022. That backgrounder starts 15 minutes 46 seconds into the episode.

Among items to look out for the week of April 18 (34:18), Sam and Eric point to the releases of the Fed’s Beige book on Wednesday and latest print of the Leading Economic Indicators on Thursday. In addition, Powell and Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, Thursday will speak on a panel on the global economy. This episode of Monday Morning Minutes was recorded April 14, 2022.

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