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DoubleLine Podcasts

MMM Episode 63: Where Are We in the Commodities Cycle?

After reviewing month and year-to-date market returns (1:58) and the April 25-29 week’s macro news (10:25), Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau turn to the broad topic of commodities (15:06), including asset class’s diversification benefits relative to stocks and bonds, the cyclical factors that have supported surging prices and the structural supply and demand factors that could support commodity prices over the longer term, particularly signatories of the Paris Agreement to convert to green energy sources. “When we talk about renewable energy, you have things like solar, wind and electric vehicles, all of which are commodity intensive,” especially in terms of industrial metals, notes Sam Lau.

The big macroeconomic news of the week was the 1.4% month-over-month decline in U.S. gross domestic product versus the consensus expectation of a 1.0% increase. “The market didn’t seem to move much on that number even though it was a big disappointment,” Jeff Mayberry observes. The week of May 2-6 (35:14) could be a volatile one, he notes, given a heavy news schedule with, among other items, the ISM manufacturing number for April due Monday, JOLTS job openings on Tuesday and most importantly the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.

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