DoubleLine Podcasts

MMM Episode 78: Rallies in Stocks, Bonds, Commodities; Less Than Meets the Eye on the CPI

In their review of the Aug. 8-12 market week, Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau observe broad rallies across all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 (2:39); most sectors of the fixed income universe (3:56), with the exception of the U.S. Treasury segment of the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index; and most parts of the commodities complex (7:12). Turning to the week’s macro news (9:25), the hosts take note of hawkish Fedspeak by regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis), Mary Daly (San Francisco) and Charles Evans (Chicago). Jeff Mayberry cautions (11:03) Fed watchers not to put too much weight on tamer-than-expected month-to-month changes in the headline and core Consumer Price Index for July. The August CPI, he points out, will come out before the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting (Sept. 20-21).

Looking ahead to the week of Aug. 15 (18:37), Samuel Lau is not expecting much from retail sales, publication of the July 27 FOMC minutes or jobless claims. However, he notes that the Leading Economic Index, which prints Thursday Aug. 18, could decline on a year-over-year basis, which would be “another checked box” for recession watchers.

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