DoubleLine Podcasts

MMM Episode 80: Was Powell’s Brief Speech Really a Surprise?

DoubleLine’s Samuel Lau and Jeff Mayberry run down the numbers for the red market week of Aug. 22-26, with stocks in particular falling in the wake of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell’s short speech Friday from the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium (14:40). The S&P 500 Index was down 4% on the week, with most of that decline coming Friday (2:07). Energy was the best performer while tech was the biggest laggard. In fixed income, the two- and 10-year bond yields finished the week higher, and the long bond rallied a bit after the Powell speech. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index was down 40 basis points on the week with no green to be seen. Commodities delivered a mixed bag (7:07). Bitcoin was down for the week (9:13) to around $20,000, with Sam and Jeff questioning if its historical round-number bias might presage a 50% climb ($30,000) or fall ($10,000).

Over in Macro Land (11:03), data prints included the S&P Global U.S. manufacturing and services PMI numbers at their lowest since 2020, and core PCE has a long way to go before hitting the Fed’s inflation target. The negative second estimate of Q2 GDP number marked improvement but seems unlikely to hit zero or go positive in future updates. Powell’s speech was the macro event of the week (14:33), and Sam and Jeff dig into the details, including how Powell’s pronouncements were consistent with previous statements by other Fed officials but some equity investors reacted as if it were a hawkish surprise.

The Topic of the Week will be returning the first episode after Labor Day, and if you have any suggestions, please send them in via [email protected] or @dlineminutes.

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