DoubleLine Podcasts

MMM Episode 84: Delving into Disturbing Dots, Predicting Powell Plans for Pain

After surveying the week’s macro news and carnage in equity, fixed income and commodity markets, host and Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and guest and Quantitative Analyst Eric Dhall unpack (13:48) the market-jarring details of the Federal Reserve’s latest dot plot and Chair Powell’s Sept. 21 news conference. The new dot plot showed a 4.37% median of Fed policymakers’ projections for the federal funds target rate by the end of 2022, a “huge shift” Eric Dhall notes from the 3.4% projection in the previous dot plot that forced repricings across the financial markets.

The podcast episode begins with a review of the Sept. 19-23 of U.S. stocks (1:36), down 4.6% on the S&P 500 with the energy sector worst-off with a loss of 9%. All major sectors of the fixed income markets (3:33) sold off, with the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index down 1.6% and outside the Agg, high yield down 2.8% and emerging markets down 2.7%. Commodities were no place to hide (4:37). The Bloomberg Commodity Index dropped 3.8%, led by the energy complex with West Texas Intermediate crude oil falling 7% to $79.12 per barrel.

Looking ahead to macro news for Sept. 26-30 (25:58), Jeff Mayberry and Eric Dhall are especially on lookout for Friday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator: the Personal Consumption Expenditure indicator and its Core PCE component.

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