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DoubleLine Podcasts

MMM: Mayberry and Lau on the Week of May 24-28 and What Lies Ahead

After a review of month- and year-to-date bond, stock and commodity returns through May 28, Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau turn to the Question of the Week: how they form their outlooks for future bond and stock returns over the long term. While all models and indicators are subject to potential mistaken assumptions, certain metrics used thoughtfully can provide useful frameworks for setting long-term return expectations for asset classes. The co-hosts discuss such tools as Professor Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio for stocks, Dr. Shiller’s more recently developed excess CAPE yield, risk-free (U.S. Treasury) rates relative to inflation and, for bond investments, the yield-to-duration ratio, aka the Sherman Ratio, named after DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman. Although the post-Memorial Day market week of June 1 will be an abbreviated one, Messrs. Mayberry and Lau note it will be charged with significant macroeconomic releases and events: ISM manufacturing and OPEC Plus on Tuesday, ISM services on Thursday and May nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rates on Friday.

The views and opinions expressed herein are as of the date recorded and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities. Such views/opinions may differ from those of DoubleLine Capital or other of its affiliates and are subject to change without notice. DoubleLine has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. The following audio presentations represent DoubleLine’s intellectual property. No portion of these presentations may be published, reproduced, transmitted or rebroadcast in any media in any form without the express written permission of DoubleLine. DoubleLine has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. To receive permission from DoubleLine please contact [email protected].

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DoubleLine is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice in these podcasts. The receipt of these podcasts by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by any DoubleLine entity or individual to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any DoubleLine entity. The portfolio risk management process includes an effort to monitor and manage risk, but does not imply low risk.

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