Gad Levanon, Ph.D., The Conference Board’s chief economist for North America, joins DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Sherman and Sam Lau to discuss his work in forecasting the U.S. economy and his new research on labor markets. In 2014, Dr. Levanon issued a report from The Conference Board warning of a looming labor shortage in the U.S. That report, which was met with skepticism in many corners, proved to be prescient with the unemployment rate falling over the subsequent five years to its lowest level in half a century. Among new research initiatives led by Dr. Levanon, The Conference Board has been collecting, classifying and analyzing job-opening ads from every job board in the U.S., creating a real-time data set to spot labor trends. Job openings, which he explains serve as a leading indicator of employment, have been declining for several months. Within the corporate sector, he sees an acceleration in labor costs eroding the bottom line of businesses. So far, these pressures have not resulted in inflation, but an eventual acceleration in inflation remains a possibility. The retirement of baby boomers and weak productivity growth, he notes, have exacerbated the tightness of the labor market. Contrary to fears that technology will replace workers, creating a large unemployed population, Dr. Levanon points out that most of the worker replacement with technology occurred in previous decades. This process, he observes, is continuing but at a much slower place, although some companies are showing signs of refocusing efforts on raising productivity growth through technology. The podcast was recorded August 12, 2019.
The views and opinions expressed herein are as of the date recorded and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities. Such views/opinions may differ from those of DoubleLine Capital or other of its affiliates and are subject to change without notice. DoubleLine has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. The following audio presentations represent DoubleLine’s intellectual property. No portion of these presentations may be published, reproduced, transmitted or rebroadcast in any media in any form without the express written permission of DoubleLine. DoubleLine has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. To receive permission from DoubleLine please contact email@example.com.
Neither DoubleLine nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.
DoubleLine is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice in these podcasts. The receipt of these podcasts by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by any DoubleLine entity or individual to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any DoubleLine entity. The portfolio risk management process includes an effort to monitor and manage risk, but does not imply low risk.