News that Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam has formally withdrawn the extradition legislation that sparked mass protests in the territory must be viewed with caution. The aims of the 13-week long protest movement in the territory have broadened beyond opposition … Read More

Fixated on Federal Reserve interest-rate policy, the risk markets could be missing 90% of the monetary iceberg: the Fed’s $3.8 trillion balance sheet and the more than $3.3 trillion U.S. money market. A decade ago, the central bank embarked on … Read More

On July 8, 2016, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note traded at an all-time low of 1.36%. With the subsequent move higher in rates since, this date in 2016 appears in retrospect to have heralded the end of the … Read More

The distinct roles of copper versus gold – the red metal’s industrial necessity, the popular perception of the yellow metal as a safe haven – can embed useful information in their market prices, particularly in relationship to each other. Broadly … Read More

As the U.S. approaches the 10th year since the start of this economic expansion, the economy is showing signs of entering the later innings of the business cycle. As measured by industrial production, capacity utilization and durable goods, real economic … Read More

A shrinking Chinese current account surplus poses problems for US public and private sectors. Trade tensions between Washington and Beijing have fixed all eyes on China’s large goods trade surplus with the US. While the likelihood of an outright trade … Read More

From the flawless right-hand point breaks of Santa Barbara and Malibu to the thumping beach breaks of Oxnard and Newport Beach, Southern California hosts an abundance of surf spots. On the best days, these surf breaks are world class. Unfortunately … Read More

While of recent invention, the catch phrase “Smart Beta” represents an extension or evolution of “quantitative investment” techniques of decades-old lineage. The revolutionary movement lies in Smart Beta’s democratization of these techniques and making them transparent to investors. By way … Read More

The strong performance of risk assets to start 2018 was driven by continued improvement in corporate earnings, increased global growth expectations, highly accommodative monetary policy from global central banks and a benign inflation environment. As a result credit spreads, specifically … Read More

In their iconic song, “Hotel California,” the Eagles sum up the trap of living to excess with the paradoxical finish: “You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.” That couplet captures the dilemma facing the … Read More