From the most anticipated recession ever to cash-rich consumers and the Magnificent 7, Sam Garza, Ryan Kimmel and Fei He of DoubeLine’s Multi-Asset Team take a macro tour through 2023 while looking at prospects for 2024 with the assistance of 24 charts. Recorded December 12, 2023.
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1. Most Anticipated Recession Ever (0:28)
2. Growth Expectations Revised Higher in 2023 (1:20)
3. 2023 the Mirror Image of 2022 (2:53)
4. Cross-Asset Volatility Divergence (3:42)
5. Prolonged Contraction in Global Manufacturing (5:08)
6. Normalizing Labor Supply-Demand Imbalance (6:05)
7. Households Awash in Liquidity (7:19)
8. Weakness in Cyclical Employment (8:54)
9. Longer Lags From Tighter Monetary Policy (10:33)
10. Fed Gets Real (11:50)
11. Inflation Continues to Decelerate (12:47)
12. Wage Growth to Moderate (13:29)
13. Inflation Subsiding but Prices High (14:14)
14. Rate Cuts Expected in 2024 (17:21)
15. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Correlated to Policy Rate Expectations (18:43)
16. Where Will the Money Go? (20:07)
17. Starting Yield Matters (21:55)
18. Maturity Wall in Focus (23:45)
19. Are We in a New Real Rate Regime? (25:45)
20. Seasonality of Municipal Closed-End Funds (28:39)
21. U.S. Treasury Supply a Risk in the New Year (30:23)
22. Protracted Yield Curve Inversion (32:17)
23. Equal-Weighted Set to Outperform Cap-Weighted? (33:44)
24. Elevated Geopolitical Risk (35:14)
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