DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey April market returns, with stocks (0:32) rebounding strongly from wartime losses in the prior month, and IG fixed income (2:55) managing a positive carry in the face of rising yields. Emerging markets debt led risky credit with a 2.7% return. Commodities (3:58) moved higher, led by energy. The week ended May 1 was packed with macro news (6:35), with strong readings in capital goods spending driven by tax-code changes incentivizing business investment and AI investment, and strong but decelerating personal incomes.
The April 29 FOMC meeting (8:05), Jerome Powell’s last as Fed chair while he stays put atop his Fed governor’s perch, was characterized by a single dovish dissent from the committee’s decision to leave rates unchanged and three hawkish dissents over the faint signal of easing bias left in its policy guidance. That behavior was enough, Mark notes, for fed funds futures to reprice from a 25% probability of a single rate cut in 2026 to just about nil “as far as the eye can see.” Looking ahead (18:39) to May 4-8, Jeff and Mark will have their eyes on unemployment and payrolls prints for April as well as JOLTS, ISM services and import-export reports.
Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s Strategic Commodity Strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation committee. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly “Minutes” podcast (X @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com). Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.
Mr. Kimbrough joined DoubleLine in 2012, working primarily on Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities and the Fixed Income Asset Allocation process as a member of the Risk Analyst team. He transitioned in 2019 to his current role as an Analyst on the Macro Asset Allocation team. Mr. Kimbrough also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly “Minutes” podcast (X @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com). Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Kimbrough was at WAMCO, working on systems monitoring and development within the Risk Department. He holds a B.S. in Business Administration with a concentration in Real Estate Finance and a minor in Economics from the University of Southern California. Mr. Kimbrough is a CFA® charterholder.
