DoubleLine Capital Global Bond Portfolio Manager Bill Campell shares his thinking on trade policy under President Trump, including investment risks and opportunities as a protracted and episodic rollout of tariffs aimed at U.S. trade partners likely whipsaws currency exchange rates against the dollar through much of 2025. In “Assessing Trump Trade Policy: A Year of Rolling Tariffs, Macro Unknowns and FX Volatility,” Mr. Campbell begins by sharing his initial understanding of trade tariffs as a means of achieving structural change or as transactional leverage in negotiations with foreign governments. He then expands this perspective into an analytical framework categorizing tariffs by their currency, sector, national security, national leverage, reciprocal and currency dimensions. These vary with respect to the Trump administration’s policy aims with different countries and regions. Given President Trump’s emphasis on China as America’s most important strategic as well as commercial competitor, Mr. Campbell devotes a distinct treatment on Trump tariff policy toward Beijing. The research paper rounds out the tariff assessment with their implications for currency manipulation and exchange-rate volatility vis-à-vis U.S. trading partners, economic and market implications.
Mr. Campbell joined DoubleLine in 2013. He is a Portfolio Manager for the DoubleLine Global Bond Strategy and is a permanent member of the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee. He covers Developed Markets, Central & Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa (CEEMEA), and China. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Campbell worked for Peridiem Global Investors as a Global Fixed Income Research Analyst and Portfolio Manager. Previous to that, he was with Nuveen Investment Management Company, first as a Quantitative Analyst in their Risk Management and Portfolio Construction Group, then as a Vice President in their Taxable Fixed Income Group. Mr. Campbell also worked at John Hancock Financial as an Investment Analyst. He holds a BS in Business Economics and International Business, as well as a BA in English, from Pennsylvania State University. Mr. Campbell holds an MA in Mathematics, with a focus on Mathematical Finance, from Boston University.
