DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Bill Campbell joins Bloomberg’s The Close live from DoubleLine’s L.A. offices to discuss what he sees as a structural sea change in global bond markets – one where developed market sovereign debt is increasingly being scrutinized with the same rigor historically reserved for emerging economies. Mr. Campbell argues that decades of fiscal discipline gave developed markets their safe-haven status, but that advantage has steadily eroded through rising debt loads and expanding social safety nets. Meanwhile, many emerging markets (EM) have quietly cleaned up their fiscal profiles. He also touches on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell’s legacy, arguing that by normalizing dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee, Chair Powell might have intentionally created an institutional check on his successor, Kevin Warsh – a net positive for Fed credibility, but one that could breed volatility if the macro backdrop deteriorates further. Read more on that here.
Mr. Campbell closes with a structural bearish view on the U.S. dollar, noting that the U.S. shift to an interventionist foreign policy has added to global reserve currency concerns. With equity valuations elevated and credit spreads tight, he sees EM local currency debt – with its high real yields and still-cheap currencies – as one of the last remaining pockets of genuine value in global markets.
Mr. Campbell joined DoubleLine in 2013. He oversees the firm’s Global Sovereign and Emerging Markets teams and serves as the lead Portfolio Manager for the firm’s emerging markets and international strategies. He is a permanent member of the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Campbell worked for Peridiem Global Investors as a Global Fixed Income Research Analyst and Portfolio Manager. Prior to that, he was with Nuveen Investment Management Co., first as a Quantitative Analyst in the Risk Management and Portfolio Construction Group then as a Vice President in the Taxable Fixed Income Group. Mr. Campbell also worked at John Hancock Financial as an Investment Analyst. He holds a B.S. in Business Economics and International Business, as well as a B.A. in English, from Pennsylvania State University. Mr. Campbell also holds an M.A. in Mathematics, with a focus on Mathematical Finance, from Boston University.
