Channel 11 News host and DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Ken Shinoda welcomes Graham Hopper, Head of DoubleLine’s Advisor Group, to review a rough first half of the year for investors, using commonly asked questions that Mr. Hopper gets from clients to help guide their discussion. The two kick things off with a rundown of how DoubleLine has been thinking about fixed income (2:25), where things are looking better on a go-forward basis; equities (8:05); and commodities (9:33), a sector, Mr. Hopper notes, where “you’ve either got to commit or you don’t.” Messrs. Shinoda and Hopper then shift to the macro outlook (12:08), with Mr. Hopper laying out two big questions from clients: How far is the Fed really going to raise rates? And, Is it going to be a hard or soft landing? This section also includes talk on inflation’s heavy impact on sentiment (14:32) and the declining employment-to-population ratio (20:37).
Messrs. Shinoda and Hopper then break out the crystal ball to share some thoughts on where things are headed. For fixed income (25:28), the two discuss why someone would own fixed income over cash (27:30) and compare nominal Treasuries to TIPS (30:20). Mr. Hopper asks, What is more risky right now for the next year? Duration or credit? (45:52) while Mr. Shinoda asks, Do bonds offer protection during an equity drawdown (48:55)? In their look at equities (54:24), Mr. Hopper asks if Mr. Shinoda has yet to hear the investor refrain of “Get out! Get out!” (56:58) and then shares why a former mentor’s strategy of “Do nothing” might be appropriate (58:45). In some good news, commodities are off their highs, and weaker commodities should help to lower inflation and inflation expectations (1:04:53). Talk of precious metals leads to Mr. Hopper noting the narrative that crypto might serve as digital gold in an inflationary period has dramatically unraveled (1:06:03). The mid-year review concludes with a rundown of the housing market (1:07:32), with Mr. Shinoda using a chart to answer the haters who think housing prices might be in for a 2008-like slide. This episode was recorded June 23, 2022.
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Mr. Shinoda joined DoubleLine at inception in 2009. He is Chairman of the Structured Products Committee and oversees the non-Agency RMBS team specializing in investing in non-Agency mortgage-backed securities, residential whole loans and other mortgage-related opportunities. Mr. Shinoda is co-Portfolio Manager on the Total Return, Opportunistic Income, Income, Opportunistic MBS and Strategic MBS strategies. He is also lead Portfolio Manager overseeing the Mortgage Opportunities private funds. Mr. Shinoda is also a permanent member of the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee, as well as, participating in the Global Asset Allocation Committee. In addition, he hosts DoubleLine’s “Channel 11 News” (Twitter @DLineChannel11, dline11@doubleline.com), a webcast series that provides market insights and commentary with peers and industry experts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Shinoda was Vice President at TCW where he worked in portfolio management and trading. He holds a B.S. in Business Administration from the University of Southern California and is a CFA® charterholder.
