DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Ken Shinoda takes a look at the state of the markets and macro issues in his recap of February in addition to the economic outlook going forward, a potentially mixed bag summed up by the title of Led Zeppelin’s 1969 song “Good Times Bad Times.” He begins with a look at fixed income and its component segments for the month and year-to-date (equities kept rolling on) (00:33). In his monthly What Looks Cheap report (2:11), Mr. Shinoda looks at Agency MBS and what it will take for the asset class to narrow the gap with corporate bonds while noting the benefits of fixed income in balancing a portfolio.
He then turns to interest rates, the outlook for cuts this year and the inflationary picture that could impact moves by the Federal Reserve (5:51). Using past cycles, Mr. Shinoda thinks some market participants got carried away on scheduling and frequency, and he believes a first cut could happen sometime this summer, “which I think makes sense.” After a rundown of equities (11:37), commodities (12:18) and the U.S. dollar (13:18). Mr. Shinoda concludes with a review of economist forecasts for inflation and GDP in 2024 (13:35), including a breakdown of the components of the Leading Economic Index, which has been signaling recession for a long time.
Mr. Shinoda joined DoubleLine at inception in 2009. He is Chairman of the Structured Products Committee and oversees the non-Agency RMBS team specializing in investing in non-Agency mortgage-backed securities, residential whole loans and other mortgage-related opportunities. Mr. Shinoda is co-Portfolio Manager on the Total Return, Opportunistic Income, Income, Opportunistic MBS and Strategic MBS strategies. He is also lead Portfolio Manager overseeing the Mortgage Opportunities private funds. Mr. Shinoda is also a permanent member of the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee, as well as, participating in the Global Asset Allocation Committee. In addition, he hosts DoubleLine’s “Channel 11 News” (Twitter @DLineChannel11, dline11@doubleline.com), a webcast series that provides market insights and commentary with peers and industry experts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Shinoda was Vice President at TCW where he worked in portfolio management and trading. He holds a B.S. in Business Administration from the University of Southern California and is a CFA® charterholder.
