February delivered a sharp rotation across global markets, and in this episode of Channel 11, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Ken Shinoda breaks down what’s driving the shift. The discussion explores two dominant forces shaping investor sentiment: AI disruption and rising energy prices. Software and big-tech hyperscalers have come under pressure amid questions about AI monetization and capital expenditure sustainability while energy, materials, industrials and international equities have taken the spotlight. Mr. Shinoda walks through sector performance, equal-weight versus cap-weight dynamics, global equity outperformance, and a growing divergence between semiconductors and software.
On the macroeconomic and fixed income side, the episode examines a rebound in global manufacturing PMIs, resilient services data, and the inflation implications of higher oil and commodity prices. With U.S. Treasury yields rebounding from recent lows, Mr. Shinoda outlines how duration might remain range-bound and why patience is warranted. In credit, widening spreads in leveraged loans, particularly software-heavy exposures, contrast with more resilient performance in securitized sectors and Agency MBS.
00:00 – February market recap: AI fears vs. rising oil prices 01:20 – Sector rotation: Energy, materials, and industrial resurgence 02:29 – International equities outperform U.S. mega caps 03:21 – Equal weight vs. market cap weight dynamics 03:45 – Gold vs. Bitcoin divergence and commodity strength 04:49 – Semiconductors vs. software: AI winners and losers 06:32 – Global equity rotation and currency trends 08:15 – Commodities breakout: Oil, gold, and silver performance 09:03 – PMI rebound and inflation pressures 10:55 – Treasury yields, Fed outlook, and duration positioning 13:19 – Fixed income performance and leveraged loan weakness 14:54 – Credit spreads widening and emerging opportunities
Mr. Shinoda joined DoubleLine at inception in 2009. He is Chairman of the Structured Products Committee and oversees the non-Agency RMBS team specializing in investing in non-Agency mortgage-backed securities, residential whole loans and other mortgage-related opportunities. Mr. Shinoda is co-Portfolio Manager on the Total Return, Opportunistic Income, Income, Opportunistic MBS and Strategic MBS strategies. He is also lead Portfolio Manager overseeing the Mortgage Opportunities private funds. Mr. Shinoda is also a permanent member of the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee, as well as, participating in the Global Asset Allocation Committee. In addition, he hosts DoubleLine’s “Channel 11 News” (Twitter @DLineChannel11, dline11@doubleline.com), a webcast series that provides market insights and commentary with peers and industry experts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Shinoda was Vice President at TCW where he worked in portfolio management and trading. He holds a B.S. in Business Administration from the University of Southern California and is a CFA® charterholder.
