In his final Channel 11 episode of the year, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Ken Shinoda reviews a market landscape defined by early year volatility; a powerful resurgence in U.S. equities; and the continued dominance of growth-led, AI-driven sectors. Mr. Shinoda covers the stark divergence between megacap tech strength and lagging value and cyclical stocks, the implications of speculative signals such as Bitcoin weakness and shifting global currency dynamics driven by diverging central-bank policy paths. He also highlights the surprise outperformers of 2025 – including emerging markets and international equities – underscoring the role of currency strength and global diversification in portfolio construction.
On the fixed income side, Mr. Shinoda walks through a year marked by falling rates, strong returns across duration-sensitive assets, and the growing importance of sector selection as spreads compress and fundamentals become more mixed. He also dives into two of the most critical themes heading into 2026: the multitrillion-dollar, AI-driven data-center capex cycle, and its potential impact across corporate credit, ABS, CMBS and leveraged finance, and the evolving public-versus-private credit debate as returns converge and liquidity takes on renewed importance. Mr. Shinoda closes with a forward-looking positioning framework emphasizing diversification, disciplined credit selection and thoughtful navigation of an environment where the “easy money” has already been made.
00:00 – 2025 Market Recap 00:52 – Sector Performance & Tech Leadership 02:15 – Speculation Indicators (Bitcoin, Semis) 03:03 – Small Caps & Financials Outlook 04:45 – Rates, Curve Steepening & Dollar 06:12 – International & Emerging Market Strength 09:16 – Commodities & Economic Indicators 10:08 – Fed vs. Market: Rate-Cut Expectations 12:53 – Fixed Income Review (Agencies, CMBS, EM) 14:32 – Corporate Spread Movements 16:09 – 2026 Credit Strategy & Sector Selection 17:00 – CMBS, RMBS & Agency MBS Themes 18:43 – AI CapEx Buildout & Market Impact 20:51 – Public vs. Private Credit Comparison 23:53 – Closing Reflections & Year-End Wrap
Mr. Shinoda joined DoubleLine at inception in 2009. He is Chairman of the Structured Products Committee and oversees the non-Agency RMBS team specializing in investing in non-Agency mortgage-backed securities, residential whole loans and other mortgage-related opportunities. Mr. Shinoda is co-Portfolio Manager on the Total Return, Opportunistic Income, Income, Opportunistic MBS and Strategic MBS strategies. He is also lead Portfolio Manager overseeing the Mortgage Opportunities private funds. Mr. Shinoda is also a permanent member of the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee, as well as, participating in the Global Asset Allocation Committee. In addition, he hosts DoubleLine’s “Channel 11 News” (Twitter @DLineChannel11, dline11@doubleline.com), a webcast series that provides market insights and commentary with peers and industry experts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Shinoda was Vice President at TCW where he worked in portfolio management and trading. He holds a B.S. in Business Administration from the University of Southern California and is a CFA® charterholder.
