A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be. – Wayne Gretzky
A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.
China’s rise in vehicle exports has been meteoric, and a comparison with Japan shows how a once-minor exporter has become a global force in only a few years. China has turned vehicle exports into a major post-COVID-19 growth engine, moving from a fraction of Japan’s volume to more than double on a trailing 12-month basis. Autos have become one of the clearest expressions of China’s expanding reach in global manufactured goods.
The latest data shows the scale of the move. China exported roughly 930,000 vehicles in May 2026, up 68.7% from a year earlier – and nearly 12 times the level recorded in May 2019. On a trailing 12-month basis, China exported 8.6 million vehicles, compared with 4.2 million for Japan. By units, China is now the world’s largest vehicle exporter, while Japan has slipped to the second place. In 2019, China exported just over 1.0 million vehicles for the full year, while Japan exported 4.8 million. China has moved from exporting roughly one-fifth as many vehicles as Japan to exporting more than twice Japan’s volume.
The acceleration took shape after COVID-19 as margin pressure, softer domestic demand and intense competition encouraged Chinese auto manufacturers to look beyond a crowded domestic market. China’s EV scale and stronger overseas demand connected its expanding production base with markets across Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East.
EVs have become central to China’s vehicle-export mix. The country exported 424,000 new energy passenger vehicles in May, up 112.6% from a year earlier, according to the China Passenger Car Association. The share of new energy vehicles, which include battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, rose almost 10 percentage points from a year earlier to 54.1% of passenger-vehicle exports.
The high EV share ties China’s shipments to batteries, electric drivetrains, software-enabled vehicles and lower-cost manufacturing. Autos have joined batteries, solar equipment and other advanced manufactured goods as part of China’s newer export mix, with large supply chains behind them that include batteries, semiconductors, steel, electronics, logistics and software. China’s auto exports have become a useful gauge of how its manufacturing base is reaching global markets.
The pressure is greatest for countries that have historically treated autos as a source of high-value manufacturing. Governments and manufacturers now must contend with China’s growing role in one of the world’s most important manufactured-goods markets.
Foreign demand, trade barriers, price competition, service networks and brand trust will determine how much longer the trend can run. The change in global auto trade is already visible. China has moved from a secondary exporter to a leading force in global vehicle exports, reshaping the competitive landscape for an industry long anchored by Japan, Europe and the United States.
Between the Lines is a weekly blog by DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Sam Garza, Joseph Mezyk and Quant Analysts Fei He, CFA and Sunyu Wang that breaks down topical macro and market issues. For questions or suggestions please e-mail us at betweenthelines@doubleline.com. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of DoubleLine Capital LP, its affiliates or employees.
