A Scenario Survey as Washington Drifts Toward a Reckoning
In the first half of 2024, two prominent public financial institutions – the nonpartisan budget analytical center of the U.S. Congress and the world’s largest lender to sovereign governments – publicly aired concerns over the fiscal health of the United States and the sustainability of its sovereign debt. DoubleLine, which tracks the evolution of America’s debt and deficit spirals, last year began publicly sharing alternative scenarios under which these imbalances exceed critical thresholds. In light of recent rumblings at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and International Monetary Fund (IMF), Ryan Kimmel, Macro Asset Allocation Analyst at DoubleLine, shares the firm’s latest thinking on the U.S. fiscal dilemma.
Mr. Kimmel joined DoubleLine in 2013. He is an Analyst overseeing the Multi-Asset Growth Strategy. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Kimmel was a Proprietary Trader at The Gelber Group, trading currencies for the Foreign Currency Group. Previous to that, he was an Investment Banking Analyst in Morgan Stanley’s Mergers and Acquisitions Group. Mr. Kimmel holds a B.A. in Business Economics from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and an MBA from UCLA’s Anderson School of Management.
