DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeffrey Mayberry and Samuel Lau welcome back the NFL and then tackle a rough Sept. 2-6 run for the markets, including lots of red across equities (1:09); fixed income (3:04); and commodities (4:39), with even gold feeling the squeeze. Over in Macro Land (6:03), Jeff and Sam review the prints impacting the market volatility, including ISM manufacturing and labor force reports, and what those numbers might mean for potential Fed moves at September’s FOMC meeting. As their Topic of the Week (12:50), they take a look at the possible de-inversion of the long-inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve as represented by the differential of the two- and 10-year Treasury yields (“2s10s”).* Jeff and Sam look at the six previous recession periods dating back to 1980 and how the 2s10s de-inversion fits into those recessions’ timelines. Next week (23:58), Jeff and Sam will be looking at the last batch of inflation and other metrics before the Fed convenes its FOMC meeting. This episode was recorded Sept. 6, 2024, before market close.
*For more on 2s10s and the inverted Treasury yield curve, check out:
Episode 107: Timing the Lead Times of the Treasury Yield Curve
Episode 52: Yield Curve Flattening as an Economic Indicator
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Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.
Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro Committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.
