DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough recap a pretty positive run for markets for the week of Sept. 8-12, with performance impacted by investors believing a Fed cut is all but assured next week. The tech sector pushed the S&P 500 to more record highs (1:05), fixed income was supported by a rally on the long end of the U.S. Treasury curve (3:27), and commodities were up on the back of industrial and precious metals (6:06).
Over in Macro Land, the BLS released steep prelim benchmark revisions to establishment survey jobs data, but Eric and Mark caution the final numbers could vary (7:57); Mark breaks down the deceleration in the PPI print (11:02); Eric and Mark look at the most recent CPI print and whether its supportive of a Fed cut (13:43); they review job numbers that are supportive of a Fed cut (16:15); and they talk about the latest dour outlook in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (17:36).
Next week, all eyes will be on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, with the only real speculation is on whether it will be a 25-bp (most likely) or 50-bp cut and if FOMC nominee Stephen Miran will be approved in time to participate in this meeting.
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Mr. Dhall joined DoubleLine in 2013. He is a Portfolio Manager on the Macro-Asset Allocation team where he works with portfolio management performing analysis and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies. Mr. Dhall’s research and analysis has contributed to the team’s development of DoubleLine’s smart-beta suite of strategies. Prior to DoubleLine, he worked at Capital Group performing quantitative analysis in fixed income. Prior to Capital Group, Mr. Dhall was an instructor in finance at the UCLA Anderson School of Management and a research instructor at the UCLA Samueli School of Engineering. Previous to that, he worked in International Finance at Gulf Machinery Company. Mr. Dhall holds a B.S. in Physics with a secondary emphasis in Business from the University of California, Berkeley and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the UCLA Anderson School of Management.
Mr. Kimbrough joined DoubleLine in 2012, where he worked primarily on Agency Mortgage Backed Securities and the Fixed Income Asset Allocation process as a member of the Risk Analyst team. He transitioned to his current role in 2019 where he serves as an Analyst on the Macro Asset Allocation team. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Kimbrough was at Western Asset Management working on systems monitoring and development within the Risk Department. He holds a BS in Business Administration with a concentration in Real Estate Finance and a minor in Economics from the University of Southern California. Mr. Kimbrough is a CFA® charterholder.
