DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough analyze the week ended Oct. 24 with stocks with tech leading on a benign September CPI print, fixed income eking out its carry and commodities led higher by WTI on U.S. sanctions against Russian crude oil. Gold, they note, posted its first negative week since mid-August. On the economic front, in the absence of national jobless claims data due to the federal government shutdown, Mark Kimbrough notes state-level stats suggest no undue stress in labor markets. S&P Global PMI data show an expansionary U.S. economy in both manufacturing and services sectors.
Turning to the effects of the government shutdown, Mark unearths some research from the 1970s indicating that while delays in data collection probably will have little impact on the quality of the October nonfarm payrolls once that statistical series resumes reporting, biases due to poor memory recall could degrade the fidelity of the household U-3 unemployment survey and especially the CPI for the month of October. Looking ahead to the week of Oct. 27-31, Jeff and Mark will be especially interested Wednesday in guidance coming out of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (after it is expected to lower the federal funds rate by a quarter point) and from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference.
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Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.
Mr. Kimbrough joined DoubleLine in 2012, where he worked primarily on Agency Mortgage Backed Securities and the Fixed Income Asset Allocation process as a member of the Risk Analyst team. He transitioned to his current role in 2019 where he serves as an Analyst on the Macro Asset Allocation team. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Kimbrough was at Western Asset Management working on systems monitoring and development within the Risk Department. He holds a BS in Business Administration with a concentration in Real Estate Finance and a minor in Economics from the University of Southern California. Mr. Kimbrough is a CFA® charterholder.
