DoubleLine Macro Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel and Analyst Mark Kimbrough note a rotation (0:05) in favor of communications services and financials as well as industrials in the stock market for the week ended Feb. 20. The previous week’s winners – Old Economy sectors: utilities, materials, consumer staples and real estate – were down this week. In fixed income (4:09), investment grade sectors faced the headwind of a slight rise in yields across the Treasury curve while high yield and bank loans had positive returns. The long bond led yield-curve steepening Friday on the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to strike down President Trump’s tariffs. Commodities (6:41) moved higher with crude oil up 6%.
Among the week’s macro news (8:32), Ryan Kimmel sees positive signs for U.S. manufacturing; but headline and core PCE moving higher in December, decelerating wage and salary growth; and more signs of a K-shaped economy in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for February. Mark Kimbrough spies a “hawkish tilt” in the minutes of the Jan. 28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Looking ahead (20:41) to the week of Feb. 23-27, Ryan and Mark will be on the lookout for home price appreciation indexes, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report, jobless claims and the producer price index for January.
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Mr. Kimbrough joined DoubleLine in 2012, where he worked primarily on Agency Mortgage Backed Securities and the Fixed Income Asset Allocation process as a member of the Risk Analyst team. He transitioned to his current role in 2019 where he serves as an Analyst on the Macro Asset Allocation team. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Kimbrough was at Western Asset Management working on systems monitoring and development within the Risk Department. He holds a BS in Business Administration with a concentration in Real Estate Finance and a minor in Economics from the University of Southern California. Mr. Kimbrough is a CFA® charterholder.
Mr. Kimmel joined DoubleLine in 2013. He is a Strategist on the Macro Asset Allocation team and Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) and Global Asset Allocation Committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Kimmel was a Proprietary Trader at Gelber Group, trading currencies for the Foreign Currency Group. Prior to that, he was an Investment Banking Analyst in Morgan Stanley’s Mergers and Acquisitions Group. Mr. Kimmel holds a B.A. in Business Economics from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), and holds an MBA from the Anderson School of Management at UCLA.
