Beneath a slight gain for July 27-31 in broad indexes (00:37), stock market leadership continues to churn, note DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel. In fixed income (6:58), a bearish steepener took hold as markets perceived Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh striking a dovish stance. Fed funds futures adjusted to price in a two-thirds probability of a fed fund rate hike at the Sept. 16 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Warsh’s July 27 news conference (15:48) became the main event for the week’s market news. “He was channeling his inner Alan Greenspan, rest in peace, because he was saying a whole lot, but you couldn’t comprehend any narrative there other than he was tap-dancing around the reporters’ questions,” Eric Dhall comments. Notwithstanding the fancy footwork, Warsh let slip enough, including his discounting of core PCE as the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, Ryan Kimmel says, for the markets to detect a dovish posture.
Mr. Dhall joined DoubleLine in 2013. He is a Portfolio Manager on the Macro Asset Allocation team, where he works with portfolio management performing analysis and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies. His research and analysis has contributed to the team’s development of DoubleLine’s smart-beta suite of strategies. Mr. Dhall also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly “Minutes” podcast (X @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com). Prior to DoubleLine, he worked at Capital Group, performing quantitative analysis in fixed income. Prior to Capital Group, Mr. Dhall was an instructor in finance at the UCLA Anderson School of Management and a research instructor at the UCLA Samueli School of Engineering. Prior to that, he worked in International Finance at Gulf Machinery Co. Mr. Dhall holds a B.S. in Physics with a secondary emphasis in Business from the University of California, Berkeley, and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the UCLA Anderson School of Management.
Mr. Kimmel joined DoubleLine in 2013. He is a Strategist on the Macro Asset Allocation team, the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation Committee. Mr. Kimmel also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly “Minutes” podcast (X @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com). Prior to DoubleLine, he was a Proprietary Trader at Gelber Group. Prior to that, he was an Investment Banking Analyst at Morgan Stanley. Mr. Kimmel holds a B.A. in Business Economics from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), and an MBA from the Anderson School of Management at UCLA.
