Hot purchasing manager reports raising growth and inflation expectations the week ended Sept. 25 explain, per DoubleLine’s Eric Dhall and Mark Kimbrough, a narrow tech-driven gain in the S&P 500 (1:04) and higher yields along the U.S. Treasury curve (4:27). Commodities (9:33) eased, led by lower energy prices on Midde East conflict hopes.
The week’s macro prints (13:31) were led by strong S&P purchasing manager readings in the manufacturing and especially services sectors, bringing in tow higher wage pressures and prices-paid inputs. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey found that durable-goods buying conditions improved on the perception purchases now would avoid higher prices in the future. Eric Dhall notes the Federal Reserve’s attention has shifted “to the inflation side of the dual mandate.”
Looking to the week ahead, Eric and Mark will be on the lookout for the JOLTS job-openings report for August (Tuesday); personal income and spending as well as PCE for August (Wednesday); ISM Manufacturing reporting and jobless claims for September (Thursday); and nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for September (Friday).
Mr. Dhall joined DoubleLine in 2013. He is a Portfolio Manager on the Macro Asset Allocation team, where he works with portfolio management performing analysis and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies. His research and analysis has contributed to the team’s development of DoubleLine’s smart-beta suite of strategies. Mr. Dhall also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly “Minutes” podcast (X @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com). Prior to DoubleLine, he worked at Capital Group, performing quantitative analysis in fixed income. Prior to Capital Group, Mr. Dhall was an instructor in finance at the UCLA Anderson School of Management and a research instructor at the UCLA Samueli School of Engineering. Prior to that, he worked in International Finance at Gulf Machinery Co. Mr. Dhall holds a B.S. in Physics with a secondary emphasis in Business from the University of California, Berkeley, and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the UCLA Anderson School of Management.
Mr. Kimbrough joined DoubleLine in 2012, working primarily on Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities and the Fixed Income Asset Allocation process as a member of the Risk Analyst team. He transitioned in 2019 to his current role as an Analyst on the Macro Asset Allocation team. Mr. Kimbrough also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly “Minutes” podcast (X @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com). Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Kimbrough was at WAMCO, working on systems monitoring and development within the Risk Department. He holds a B.S. in Business Administration with a concentration in Real Estate Finance and a minor in Economics from the University of Southern California. Mr. Kimbrough is a CFA® charterholder.
