DoubleLine Analyst Mark Kimbrough and Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel on Nov. 13 scrutinize a stock market (0:10) demonstrating broad strength for the week. Meanwhile they note fixed income (4:03), with the exception of floating-rate debt, sold off on a “borderline disturbing” CPI for October and hawkish remarks ahead of that report by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. Looking beyond the week-to-week price moves, Mark and Ryan discern in the year-to-date returns leadership shifts. These have favored the equal-weight S&P 500’s outperformance over its market-cap-weighted cousin. Commodities weakened, led lower by industrial metals and energy.
The macro front (10:03) was dominated by the October CPI, which showed “broad-based reflation” and raised the odds of a 50-basis-point hike at the FOMC's Dec. 9 meeting. In the wake of the week’s bond selloff, the odds of a half-point move stood at about 10% by Friday. Ryan Kimmel also takes note of a widening of the federal budget gap “to $404 billion in October, up 42% from the same period last year. This is not encouraging for the sustainability for our fiscal trajectory.”
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Mr. Kimbrough joined DoubleLine in 2012, working primarily on Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities and the Fixed Income Asset Allocation process as a member of the Risk Analyst team. He transitioned in 2019 to his current role as an Analyst on the Macro Asset Allocation team. Mr. Kimbrough also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly “Minutes” podcast (X @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com). Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Kimbrough was at WAMCO, working on systems monitoring and development within the Risk Department. He holds a B.S. in Business Administration with a concentration in Real Estate Finance and a minor in Economics from the University of Southern California. Mr. Kimbrough is a CFA® charterholder.
Mr. Kimmel joined DoubleLine in 2013. He is a Strategist on the Macro Asset Allocation team, the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation Committee. Mr. Kimmel also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly “Minutes” podcast (X @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com). Prior to DoubleLine, he was a Proprietary Trader at Gelber Group. Prior to that, he was an Investment Banking Analyst at Morgan Stanley. Mr. Kimmel holds a B.A. in Business Economics from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), and an MBA from the Anderson School of Management at UCLA.
