From consensus federal funds rate forecasts made at the start of 2022 that would widely miss the mark (1:24) to the total decline in crypto market cap (30:45), Sam Garza, Ryan Kimmel and Fei He of DoubleLine’s Macro Asset Allocation Team take a quick spin through a rough 2022 while looking at prospects for 2023 with the assistance of 23 charts. The trio’s review includes a rundown of cross asset performance in 2022 (3:33) and the labor demand-supply balance (9:21); Mr. He’s inflation outlook for 2023 (13:24); and growth prospects for the U.S., U.K. and Europe next year (16:25). With the threat of recession looming, Messrs. Garza and Kimmel also discuss the return potential for bonds (22:20) before diving into U.S. equity performance (27:48). “Over the coming possible year, we’ll really get a sense of whether we’re still in the easy-money policy world,” Mr. Garza notes, “or we transition to some other type of world, possibly a world of higher baseline inflation and spurred on by deglobalization and some other factors.”
Mr. Garza joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager overseeing both the Macro-Asset Allocation and CLO teams. He is a permanent member of the Fixed Income Asset Allocation and the Structured Product Committees. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Garza was a Senior Vice President at TCW where he held several positions over his tenure there. Prior to TCW, he worked at Union Bank of California in the Commercial Banking Group where he was involved with corporate loan underwriting. Mr. Garza holds a BA in Business Economics from the University of California, Santa Barbara and an MBA from the Anderson School of Management at the University of California, Los Angeles.
