As the Federal Reserve winds down its Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF), let’s take a long-term look at the investment grade corporate bond market. The purpose of this exercise is to compare the past to the present and see what this might tell us about the future. Last year, the Fed engineered an unprecedented intervention in the asset class. Today, investors in high grade corporate bonds face historically low yields, tight spreads and a high degree of interest rate sensitivity. However, as the global economy continues to reopen, and corporate profitability and earnings growth remain strong, the spread should remain range-bound. In my view, the main risk to investment grade bonds remains in the sector’s elevated sensitivity to higher interest rates.
