DoubleLine Global Bond Portfolio Manager Bill Campbell moderates a June 6, 2024, discussion with fellow Portfolio Manager Valerie Ho and Sovereign Analyst Nicholas Engler on the national elections recently held in India, Mexico and South Africa. Among the topics covered:
(0:57) Valerie Ho’s views on the surprising loss of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s congressional majority. India Prime Minister Narendra Modi had expected his BJP and allies to gain seats in the elections ended June 2.
(3:30) In the future, a slower pace of business-friendly reform, particularly with respect to land and labor reforms.
(5:39) DoubleLine’s favorable outlook for the Indian economy, given a growing 1.4 billion population, with over 50% under the age of 30, benefits from the realignment of global supply chains and relatively robust economic fundamentals.
(7:26) Nicholas Engler’s identifying voter dissatisfaction in South Africa “with the amount of corruption at all levels of government” and the African National Congress’s failure to improve living standards as drivers behind the ANC’s loss of single-party control for the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994.
(9:52) Business-friendly and -unfriendly scenarios as the ANC tries to broker power-sharing deals with other political parties to cobble together a voting majority in the National Assembly and form a government.
(14:58) In Mexico, Valerie Ho’s take on Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidential election victory by a wider-than-expected margin with enlarged majorities for her political party, Morena, in the lower and upper houses of the Mexican congress, an outcome that rattled currency markets.
(16:16) Market concerns of possible radical constitutional changes in the wake of a strengthened Morena governing party, perhaps even as soon as September by outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
(19:59) Risks to Mexico posed by different scenarios in the U.S. presidential and congressional elections in November.
Ms. Ho joined DoubleLine in 2009 as an Emerging Markets Sovereign Analyst. She is now a Portfolio Manager for the DoubleLine Global Bond strategy covering Latin America and Emerging Asia excluding China. Prior to DoubleLine, Ms. Ho was an Assistant Vice President at TCW, where her responsibilities included analyzing Multi-Asset Fixed Income and CDO investments. Previous to TCW, she worked as a Paraplanner for Ameriprise Financial. Ms. Ho holds a BS in Mathematics/Economics and a Specialization in Computer Programming from the University of California at Los Angeles. She is a CFA® charterholder.
Mr. Campbell joined DoubleLine in 2013. He is a Portfolio Manager for the DoubleLine Global Bond Strategy and is a permanent member of the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee. He covers Developed Markets, Central & Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa (CEEMEA), and China. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Campbell worked for Peridiem Global Investors as a Global Fixed Income Research Analyst and Portfolio Manager. Previous to that, he was with Nuveen Investment Management Company, first as a Quantitative Analyst in their Risk Management and Portfolio Construction Group, then as a Vice President in their Taxable Fixed Income Group. Mr. Campbell also worked at John Hancock Financial as an Investment Analyst. He holds a BS in Business Economics and International Business, as well as a BA in English, from Pennsylvania State University. Mr. Campbell holds an MA in Mathematics, with a focus on Mathematical Finance, from Boston University.
Mr. Engler joined DoubleLine in 2020 as an Analyst, Sovereign Credit on the International Fixed Income team. Prior to DoubleLine, he worked at J.P. Morgan in London, where his responsibilities included country risk management for the Middle East and North Africa. Previous to J.P. Morgan, Mr. Engler worked as a Research Assistant at S&P Global Ratings in New York. He holds a B.A. in International Relations from the University of Southern California and MIA in International Finance and Economic Policy from Columbia University.
