DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Ken Shinoda joins Bloomberg’s The Close live from DoubleLine’s L.A. offices to discuss the mortgage market and housing. With the 30-year fixed rate creeping back to 6.4%, the housing market remains in a standoff, but Mr. Shinoda argues this environment has created one of the more compelling credit backdrops for residential mortgage bonds in years. After a prolonged period of underperformance relative to corporates, Agency mortgages have recovered, and he sees them as an attractive diversifier as corporate credit becomes increasingly correlated with equities on the back of tech-driven capital expenditure.
In the broader market, Mr. Shinoda sees the housing versus commercial real estate narrative flipping – housing is going sideways in some markets while commercial real estate appears to finally be finding its footing after years of pain. He closes with his key macro call: With energy prices elevated, inflation breakevens creeping higher and no obvious catalyst for rates to fall, the path of least resistance is to clip your coupon. With the two-year U.S. Treasury at 4% and credit spreads offering another 100-120 basis points on top, Mr. Shinoda sees a straightforward case for carry as the dominant fixed-income strategy in 2026.
Mr. Shinoda joined DoubleLine at inception in 2009. He is Chairman of the Structured Products Committee and oversees the non-Agency RMBS team specializing in investing in non-Agency mortgage-backed securities, residential whole loans and other mortgage-related opportunities. Mr. Shinoda is co-Portfolio Manager on the Total Return, Opportunistic Income, Income, Opportunistic MBS and Strategic MBS strategies. He is also lead Portfolio Manager overseeing the Mortgage Opportunities private funds. Mr. Shinoda is also a permanent member of the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee, as well as, participating in the Global Asset Allocation Committee. In addition, he hosts DoubleLine’s “Channel 11 News” (Twitter @DLineChannel11, dline11@doubleline.com), a webcast series that provides market insights and commentary with peers and industry experts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Shinoda was Vice President at TCW where he worked in portfolio management and trading. He holds a B.S. in Business Administration from the University of Southern California and is a CFA® charterholder.
