DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeffrey Mayberry and Samuel Lau Kick off the last episode of 2023 with a yearly performance review of the markets, with equities and fixed income far removed from 2022’s double bear runs. The S&P 500 Index (00:50) finished up 26%, with the low clocking in on Jan. 5 and the high arriving Dec. 28. The index’s run was paced by tech and communication services (big losers last year). For fixed income (5:01), U.S. Treasuries had a volatile run but ended the year fairly close to where they began. The Agg finished the year up 5.5%, boosted by a strong fourth quarter. Commodities (8:51) struggled on the year while Bitcoin (11:21) surged 150%. Over in Macro Land (11:42), Jeff and Sam review the latest prints, including fed funds futures that forecast six cuts to the federal funds rate in 2024.
Looking back on 2023 (15:34), Jeff and Sam list some of their favorite topics discussed, including the three-month/10-year yield curve inversion; stress in the overnight repo market; and a check-in on recession indicators that still challenge the “no landing” narrative. List of highlighted episodes are below. This episode was recorded after market close Dec. 29, 2023.
Thanks for listening and have a Happy New Year!
3-Month/10-Year Yield Curve InversionMMM Episode 97: Will 2023 Break the 3s10s’ Perfect Streak on Calling Recession?
Bank RunsMMM Episode 106: March Madness Shakes Up a Couple Banks
Yield Curve SteepeningMMM Episode 107: Timing the Lead Times of the Treasury Yield Curve
State of CRE Lending SpaceMMM Episode 109: Green Month and Quarter for Markets; Tough Times Ahead for CRE Borrowing
U.S. Treasury Funding StressMMM Episode 132: Treasury Refunding Needs and Potential for Funding Stress
Recession MetricsMMM Episode 136: Recession Watch Update Amid Red Market Week
Financial ConditionsMMM E143: Financial Conditions, a Very Strong November and Fedspeak Discord
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Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.
Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro Committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.
