For the week ended Jan. 12, 2024, traditional asset markets, Samuel Lau and Eric Dhall observe, echoed their behavior in 2023, with stocks (1:05) and bonds (3:25) delivering positive returns and commodities ending lower. Sam points out that the U.S. Treasury yield curve as measured by 2s10s de-inverted to the tune of 13 basis points, bringing the curve closer to a positive slope, historically a signal of imminent recession. Eric reviews the macro news for the week, including the market’s knee-jerk reaction to Thursday’s hotter-than-expected December CPI. In light of the protracted past concentration of stock returns in a handful of leaders such as the Magnificent 7 or the top 10 stocks by market cap of the S&P 500 (17:30), Sam suggests that investors consider diversifying their equity exposure away from market-weighted indexes to equal-weighted indexes. Looking ahead to the Jan. 16-19 market week (33:46), Eric and Sam have their eyes on prints of retail sales, import prices, jobless claims and, because Fed Chair Jerome Powell watches it, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.
Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro Committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.
