For the holiday-shortened market week of Jan. 16-19, DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeffrey Mayberry and Samuel Lau for the Topic of the Week (10:55) look at the Retail Sales Report, an always potentially market-moving print, as retail sales account for about one-third of U.S. GDP, and the report provides a snapshot of consumer trends. Jeff and Sam break down the report’s composition; how the data is collected through store surveys (which can still be returned by fax!); and discuss the “control group” or “core retail sales,” a narrower band of data for tracking retail sales.
In their markets review (00:30), Jeff and Sam discuss the winners and losers in an up week for the S&P 500 Index; a pretty bloody run for fixed income (1:33) as Treasury yields rose across the curve, including the 2s10s inversion very close to de-inverting, a historical harbinger of recession; and another down week for commodities (3:38) despite a positive week for WTI crude. Over in Macro Land (4:30), retail sales and the University of Michigan consumer survey beat expectations, and jobless claims came in under expectations. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller took the Fedspeak spotlight this week (7:42) talking about potential rate cuts in 2024. Next week (21:53) will bring prints including the still-recession-signaling LEI, the first estimate of fourth quarter GDP, jobless claims, personal income and spending.
Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.
Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro Committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.
