Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Quantitative Analyst Eric Dhall review markets for February (0:47) and the week ended March 1, 2024 (3:31) as well as the week’s macro news (7:00) and Fedspeak (16:51). For their Topic of the Week (19:36), Jeff and Eric explain how to use the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s FedWatch Tool to obtain the market’s probabilities of future levels in the federal funds target rate from fed funds futures prices. They also discuss reasons to be skeptical of long-range market probabilities for rate changes and how the November presidential election might constrain the time window within which the Federal Reserve is willing cut rates. Looking ahead to the week of March 4-8 (27:19), Jeff and Eric will have on their radar ISM services, JOLTS, whole trade and inventories reports; the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book release; and above all Friday’s raft of February labor market prints, including February changes in payrolls and unemployment rate.
Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.
Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro Committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.
