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Apr 12, 2024 | DoubleLine Minutes

A Market Squeeze on Hotter Inflation, Falling Rate Cut Expectations (E161)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Samuel Lau and Quantitative Analyst Eric Dhall review the market week of April 8-12, for stocks (1:04) and fixed income (5:05). Both asset classes were stung by the April 10’s report of a hotter-than-expected consumer price index in the March, although bonds staged a partial comeback Friday on a safety trade driven by fears of an escalating conflict in the Middle East. Samuel Lau next covers commodities (10:19), which stayed in the green for the week. In the macro discussion for the week (12:29), Eric Dhall takes a look under the hood of the March CPI report. In particular, he notes some troubling data in the services sector, which accelerated from 0.35% month-over-month in February to 4% in March. Sam Lau surveys (26:43) the week’s Fedspeak and the declining probabilities price into the fed funds figures market for more than one rate cut in 2024. Looking ahead to the week of April 15-19 (30:55), Sam and Eric have their sights trained on retail sales (Monday); industrial production, capacity utilization and manufacturing production (Tuesday); the Fed’s Beige Book release (Wednesday); and jobless claims and the LEI (Thursday).

ABOUT THE HOSTS

ABOUT THE HOSTS

  • Jeffrey Mayberry

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Jeffrey Mayberry

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.

  • Samuel Lau

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Samuel Lau

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro Committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.