After their review of markets (1:08), DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau discuss a seeming disconnect (6:49) between falling bond yields and rising stocks amid market-roiling bank news the week of March 13-17. In their review of the week’s macro news (9:28), Jeff notes inflation remains high, taking together the February consumer and producer price indexes. For their Topic of the Week (18:08), Jeff and Sam again look at the historical record of yield curve inversions as leading indicators of recessions. In particular, they analyze the lead times between the start of past inversions, their maximums and, post inversion, de-inversions versus the onset of recessions. Among upcoming macro developments (29:22), Jeff and Sam of course will be watching the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday March 22 and guidance coming out of the Federal Open Market Committee and from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference.
For more background on the yield curve, other leading indicators and recession dating, Jeff and Sam suggest listening to the following Monday Morning Minutes episodes in chronological order:
Yield Curve:
Episode 11, 4/16/21, Real and Nominal Yield Curve & Steepness - https://doubleline.com/markets-insights/mmm-recap-of-the-april-12-16-market-week/
Episode 52, 2/11/22, Yield Curve and Recessions - https://doubleline.com/markets-insights/mmm-episode-52/
Episode 59, 4/1/22, Real YC, Recession Indicator- https://doubleline.com/markets-insights/mmm-episode-59/
Episode 97, 1/6/23, 3mo 10y - It's Different This Time - https://doubleline.com/markets-insights/mmm-episode-97/
Other Recession Indicators:
Episode 82, 9/7/22, Recession Indicators - https://doubleline.com/markets-insights/mmm-episode-82/
Episode 88, 10/21/22, NBER and Recessions - https://doubleline.com/markets-insights/mmm-episode-88/
Episode 98, 1/13/23, Recession Indicator Update - https://doubleline.com/markets-insights/mmm-episode-98/
Subscribe to the Monday Morning Minutes podcast on:
iTunes | Soundcloud | Stitcher | Spotify | Google Podcasts
Follow us on Twitter
Comments and suggestions should be directed to Minutes@doubleline.com
Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.
Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro Committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.
