After reviewing a March 20-24 market week that brought a little bit of green, DoubleLine’s Jeff Mayberry and Sam Lau recap and review the Federal Open Market Committee’s March meeting as well as Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell’s press conference (14:30). Sam runs down changes to the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (19:06) and dot plots (21:02), including speculation on the identity of the FOMC member projecting a federal funds rate of 5.9% at the end of 2023 (the median was 5.1%). Jeff breaks down Powell’s press conference (23:07), which kicked off with a focus on the banking crisis. Conference highlights include Powell’s projection of confidence, his insistence that the current balance-sheet expansion is temporary lending to banks and not QE (25:38), Powell’s assertion that all depositors are safe and how that squares with what Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has been saying (27:50) and his harsh words for SVB management (30:11).
In the rundown of the market week (1:54), Sam reports some positive performance for the S&P 500, the Agg and Bitcoin. Over in Macro Land (10:08), Jeff talks a steady jobless claims report, PMI numbers that could be pointing to a pickup in manufacturing and the Fed’s balance-sheet numbers, among other topics. Next week (35:13) will bring some numbers on home prices, personal income and spending, and the latest print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. Fed Vice Chair Michael S. Barr is also scheduled to speak before Congress on the banking crisis. This episode was recorded after market close March 24, 2023.
Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.
Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.