After covering a broad-based positive run in the markets for the week of Nov. 13-17, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Samuel Lau and Quantitative Analyst Eric Dhall break down the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) print (11:35), one that Dhall notes was greeted with a “sense of jubilation” by the markets, as it could support the end of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hiking cycle. In their review (13:03), Sam and Eric look at what sticky housing prices could mean for the Fed’s inflation fight and speculate that Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell must have been happy after opening the latest CPI report.
It was a very green week for the markets (2:45), with the S&P positive in 11 out of 11 sectors, the Agg notching a healthy month thus far (6:38) and even commodities enjoying an uptick (9:30). Over in Macro Land, aside from the CPI print, the week included a gloomy picture painted by small-business owners (12:10), some pretty ugly retail numbers (20:59), and some producer prices and import data that point to a deceleration in goods inflation. Turning to Fedspeak (27:45), Fed officials were out en masse with a consistent, cautionary message that the inflation fight is not over. MMM will be taking next Friday off but will be back Dec. 1, so there will be a lot of data to review when it returns (29:45), including new LEI, PCE and global PMI prints, and the second update to third quarter GDP numbers. This episode was recorded after market close Nov. 17, 2023.
Happy Thanksgiving!
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Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.
Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro Committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.
