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April 29, 2022 | Monday Morning Minutes

MMM Episode 63: Where Are We in the Commodities Cycle?

After reviewing month and year-to-date market returns (1:58) and the April 25-29 week’s macro news (10:25), Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau turn to the broad topic of commodities (15:06), including asset class’s diversification benefits relative to stocks and bonds, the cyclical factors that have supported surging prices and the structural supply and demand factors that could support commodity prices over the longer term, particularly signatories of the Paris Agreement to convert to green energy sources. “When we talk about renewable energy, you have things like solar, wind and electric vehicles, all of which are commodity intensive,” especially in terms of industrial metals, notes Sam Lau.

The big macroeconomic news of the week was the 1.4% month-over-month decline in U.S. gross domestic product versus the consensus expectation of a 1.0% increase. “The market didn’t seem to move much on that number even though it was a big disappointment,” Jeff Mayberry observes. The week of May 2-6 (35:14) could be a volatile one, he notes, given a heavy news schedule with, among other items, the ISM manufacturing number for April due Monday, JOLTS job openings on Tuesday and most importantly the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.

About the Hosts

About the Hosts

  • Jeffrey Mayberry

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Jeffrey Mayberry

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.

  • Samuel Lau

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Samuel Lau

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.