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July 15, 2022 | Monday Morning Minutes

MMM Episode 74: Commodity Market Indicators and Towering Inflation

After reviewing market returns and the July 11-15 week’s macro news, DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Mayberry and Sam Lau field a question on what indicator is the best predictor of commodity prices going forward (21:08). Jeff and Sam start by reviewing the two major commodity indexes, the BCOM and S&P GSCI; their sector weightings; and how momentum is gauged. They then move to a discussion of the outlook for commodities based on longer-term macro factors (26:03), including the futures market, which they cover in-depth in Episode 48*. The two note that current commodity performance is just one of the signifiers influencing the talk about recession (34:00). If you are interested in putting together your own indicators, check out Jeff and Sam’s appearance on Channel 11 News for some additional guidance**.

It was an interesting market week (1:49) full of market-moving macro data. It was a mixed bag for fixed income (3:05), and the struggle in commodities continued (8:05). Currency conversions on the week got a little easier as the euro broke parity, basically achieving a 1-1 exchange with the U.S. dollar (9:35). On the macro front (11:55), the main news was the higher than expected CPI print for June, which broke into the 9 handle. Meanwhile, June retail sales numbers were actually pretty strong (16:30).

*MMM Episode 48: 7% CPI, Pricing in 4 Rate Hikes and a Primer on Commodities Futures

** Channel 11 News S3 E4: Do Commodities Have Room to Run?

About the Hosts

About the Hosts

  • Jeffrey Mayberry

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Jeffrey Mayberry

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.

  • Samuel Lau

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Samuel Lau

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.