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August 12, 2022 | Monday Morning Minutes

MMM Episode 78: Rallies in Stocks, Bonds, Commodities; Less Than Meets the Eye on the CPI

In their review of the Aug. 8-12 market week, Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau observe broad rallies across all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 (2:39); most sectors of the fixed income universe (3:56), with the exception of the U.S. Treasury segment of the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index; and most parts of the commodities complex (7:12). Turning to the week’s macro news (9:25), the hosts take note of hawkish Fedspeak by regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis), Mary Daly (San Francisco) and Charles Evans (Chicago). Jeff Mayberry cautions (11:03) Fed watchers not to put too much weight on tamer-than-expected month-to-month changes in the headline and core Consumer Price Index for July. The August CPI, he points out, will come out before the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting (Sept. 20-21).

Looking ahead to the week of Aug. 15 (18:37), Samuel Lau is not expecting much from retail sales, publication of the July 27 FOMC minutes or jobless claims. However, he notes that the Leading Economic Index, which prints Thursday Aug. 18, could decline on a year-over-year basis, which would be “another checked box” for recession watchers.

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About the Hosts

About the Hosts

  • Jeffrey Mayberry

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Jeffrey Mayberry

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.

  • Samuel Lau

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Samuel Lau

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.