DoubleLine’s Sam Lau and Eric Dhall, a trader and quantitative analyst on the firm’s Cross Asset team who is subbing for Jeff Mayberry, wake up to a lot of red in the markets in this episode, recorded before end of trading on Sept. 16, 2022. Investors continued to react to Tuesday’s CPI print, with the S&P 500 tumbling (1:49) and the U.S. Treasury yield curve marking big moves higher, especially on the shorter end of the curve (3:53). The Agg was down almost a point week-to-date (5:32), underscoring that there was nowhere to hide in Fixed Income Land. There was also no love to be found in commodities (6:23) and Bitcoin (7:43). Gold’s low price, its cheapest level in some time, prompts Eric to wonder if goldbugs are being drawn to bonds’ improved yields: “Maybe they’d rather have some coupon in their pocket rather than just the pet rock to look at.”
In terms of Macro, the higher than expected CPI print overshadowed all other data, and Sam and Eric break down some of the concerning numbers, including those for medical care services and shelter (9:27). On the positive side, the labor market remains the U.S. economy’s one bright star (19:31). Next week will bring LEI, and manufacturing and services data, but the FOMC meeting and a possibly hefty rate hike looms large (26:17).
Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.
Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.